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Buy Silver Now?

By: Michael Kilbach | Friday, March 29, 2013

Do you want to buy silver? Have you considered seasonal price patterns before jumping in with both feet? What typically has happened to the price of silver, in past years, following a March/April purchase? Does it make sense to buy now or wait to make that purchase?

2004 Silver Chart

In 2004 we can see that if we had made purchases of silver bullion in the first trading day of April, by September our investment would still be unprofitable. Additionally, multiple buying opportunities would still present themselves had we waited and not purchased in April. So what happened in the following years?

2005 Silver Chart

In 2005 our investment would not have suffered too badly but we would have had multiple buying opportunities had we been more patient.

2006 Silver Chart

2007 Silver Chart

2008 Silver Chart

2009 Silver Chart

2010 Silver Chart

2011 Silver Chart

2012 Silver Chart

The bottom line is that in every single year since 2004, there would have been equal or better buying opportunities in the price of Silver after the month of April. In some years, such as 2004, 2007, 2008 & 2012, the price of silver dropped significantly in the months following the month of April. Investors can be their own worst enemy when they focus on the short term and psych themselves out. In a bull market an investor can simply buy and hold for the long term, but this is easier said than done. If their purchase does not rise the moment they purchase it they can doubt themselves and sell low. Looking for lower risk opportunities to average into new positions can really help improve your portfolio's performance and help you stomach intermediate term price swings.

We think it is wise to look at the markets from many angles. At www.investmentscore.com we have proprietary indicators that help us gauge Short, Intermediate & Long term buying opportunities. We also consider seasonal patterns and wait for the lower risk opportunities to average into new positions. Our long term indicators suggest that we are in a bull market and the bottom line is that we want to make money from the big trend. Short term considerations can be important but even if an investor had bought on the worst day of 2003 they would still have an extremely profitable position today. Today's silver and gold markets are very interesting as prices are down, the current correction is getting to be long in the tooth yet the historical seasonal pattern suggests caution.

Buy now? From a long term perspective we think it makes a lot of sense to buy now. From a short to intermediate perspective things are less clear and it may make sense to be patient and buy cautiously.

 


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Author: Michael Kilbach

Michael Kilbach

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