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The State of the Trend

By: George Krum | Sunday, December 1, 2013

The major indices didn't disappoint and finished one of the strongest (from a seasonal point of view) weeks on a positive note. For the record, this is what the rest of the year looks like for the weekly SPX:

SPX table
Chart courtesy of OT Seasonal

The trend for the averages in all three time frames (daily, weekly and monthly) remains up, and this rally continues matching the 2011 QE script point for point. Bullish sentiment, however, is stalling and VIX is flashing a warning signal:

Weekly Bulls versus VIX Chart

Notwithstanding that another Fed-released taper trial balloon could precipitate a sell-off at any time, just like happened last August and September, a drop below daily channel support will signal the beginning of a sideways/down move:

SPX Daily Chart
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Gold and silver continue to be the worst performing industry groups in 2013, and remain trapped in multiple downsloping channels:

Gold Weekly Chart
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Silver Weekly Chart
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Author: George Krum

George Krum

George Krum is the author of the "CIT Dates" blog, and the following apps available from iTunes:

OddsTrader - uses the power of Hurst Channels to produce price and time targets, and combines them with proper risk and position size management.

OT Trend - helps you quantify and forecast the seemingly random ebb and flow of stock, index or mutual fund movement.

OT Fibonacci - automates the process of applying Fibonacci numbers, ratios and time series to any security.

OT Seasonal - allows you to perform seasonal analysis on practically any security from around the world and to build long-term forecasts and models.

OT Pairs - is the first mobile app that gives users access to one of the most profitable and time tested hedge fund trading strategies.

OT Pivots - combines the power of Pivot lines with cycles and automatic signal generation.

Gann 9 - is the only financial app that allows users to effortlessly apply the legendary W.D. Gann's tools and methods for trading (including the Square of 9).

Copyright © 2011-2014 George Krum