It looks like someone linked you here to our printer friendly page. Please make sure you go Back to Safehaven.com for more great articles just like this one!
SPX: Follow Up of the Short Term EWP
SPX has ended the week with a bullish Hammer candlestick reducing the odds of a larger correction from the December 31 high, which, would have been likely, anyway, a shallow larger pullback with a potential target in the range 1818.36 (weekly gap fill) - 1813.55 (November 29 peak).
Therefore next week it is probable that price will resume the advance off the October lows with another up leg.
As I have posted on January 7 on Stocktwits/Twitter, in my opinion the pattern from the October 9 low is not impulsive, instead price is unfolding a Double Zig Zag. Hence the pending up leg should conclude the advance from the October lows establishing either the wave (I) of a potential Ending Diagonal wave (Y) or the wave (A) of a Triple Zig Zag off the March 2009 low.
In the SPX Daily chart I posted on January 7, as you can see I, was expecting either a Zig Zag or a Triangle.
After a clear 3-wave down leg to the Jan 6 low of 1823.73, price action has been range bound suggesting absence of selling interest. So far the potential bearish Zig Zag pattern has not materialized.
Even though there is a potential "bearish" Triangle that could still pan out, if next Monday we don't see an impulsive decline we will have to conclude that instead of a s/t bearish triangle price has formed a bullish one (The initial triangle idea).
If the "bearish" Triangle pans out, the pattern from the December 31 high could be a Double Zig Zag with a theoretical equality extension target for the wave (Y) located at 1817.
Therefore if price breaks above 1843.23 or the pullback is corrective and establishes a higher low above 1832.43 I would consider that price has completed a bullish Triangle which will open the door to a thrust up wave (Y) completing the Double Zig Zag from the October 9 low. The target could be located in the range 1869 (Upper BB) - 1883 (0.618 extension of the assumed wave A)
Furthermore, a potential impulsive advance off last Friday's lod increases the odds that the correct pattern is the "bullish" Triangle. Hence if next Monday price unfolds a corrective pullback with a target in the range 1839 - 1837 It will most likely be the wave (2) of (Y) and I will probably go long UPRO with a stop below Friday's lod.