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The State of the Trend
Looking at the monthly chart of the '94 - 2000, '02 - '07 and current rally, it becomes apparent that they follow a similar rate of ascent. From '98 to '00 there was an acceleration of that ascent, which lead to the peak in March 2000. Currently, the index finds itself in a very similar position, after advancing at the same angle and by the exact same percentage amount since the '09 trend began accelerating at the end of '11:
There's another similarity. Looking at the daily chart, the SPX just completed a retracement commensurate with the one from May - June '13:
Whether this will mark the end of the '09 rally or just a pause in it will become evident fairly soon, depending on the ability of the SPX to climb above resistance at 1815 and 1850, or to break below the lower daily channel line.
The VIX system we mentioned last week switched to a buy signal at the open on Thursday, and after signaling the start of a 90+ point decline in January, is now trailing a 40+ point advance:
Chart courtesy of OddsTrader
Gold and silver continue to consolidate just above their recent lows but still remain trapped below strong resistance levels and within long-term downsloping channels: