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Thoughts on Gold Stocks
After making fools of the gold stock bears the initial thrust off of the right side of the bottoming pattern is making heroes of the bulls, especially those who remained steadfast in their bullishness throughout the bear market. Indeed, there is now some chest thumping going on by Team PermaBull.
The first move has been impressive in bursting upward off of what NFTRH has called 'the 205 parameter' (a right side shoulder point of a large Inverted Head & Shoulders). The initial move is maturing amidst the bullish cheer.
We have done extensive work on various time frames and components of the precious metals sector, beyond the weekly view of HUI above. Of particular interest lately has been the silver-gold relationship, and its relevance beyond the insular and highly obsessed upon precious metals sector. There is an entire macro story playing out.
The chart above is a simplified map of the HUI's bottoming process. The red dotted line is there to show one level of potential resistance. Indeed, this level on a weekly chart (245-250) cross-referenced well with the same level shown on a daily chart for different reasons. So did its implied support level at 225+/-.
We call that confluence and we like confluence of data points in refining probabilities in market management.
There has been a lot to like in the precious metals lately, but certain conditions are stretching toward limits, like the silver-gold ratio, which is either going to continue upward and eventually change the macro or it is going to reverse, probably soon.
In a real bull phase, it is not wise to sell out all positions unless you are strictly a trader, but some profit taking is always allowed. It's your risk and your capital after all, and you do not owe anything to the perma bulls. For my part, I am taking profits on big runners like Royal Gold and Silver Wheaton and looking more toward value in the exploration and young producer areas. They are out there.
While I don't tend to broadcast NFTRH's most important analysis far and wide, I do believe in publicly asking people to keep it real and rational. There will be pullbacks, likely from readily identifiable levels. Often there will be pullbacks in individual stocks (as I notice in two quality exploration/developer companies as I write this post).
The positive moves to form the right side of the big bottoming pattern on HUI are now indicating that general sector pullbacks could be good buying opportunities (we have specific support levels documented). So again, it is okay to take some profits along the way and re-deploy on lower risk opportunities.
The only differences between the precious metals sector of today and that of the bear market are that today it stands a chance of finishing a maturing bottoming pattern and entering a phase when a 'buy the pullbacks' regimen will work well. But interim pullbacks will come and they will come from logical resistance areas as sentiment gets too frothy.