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June 07, 2008

Big Bang Or Bust
by Joseph Russo

Two Sides to Every Argument:
From an Elliott Wave perspective, one can argue with good cause, that the Dow Jones Industrials are en-route toward retesting the depths of their 2002 bear market lows. The magnification of weekly closes from the October 2007 top, display a textbook series of impulsive declines at three degrees of trend. Case closed:

Objection:
Bullish perspectives also remain plausible. The bullish argument, backed by 34-years of stunning accomplishment from the depths of their 1974 bear market lows, the Industrials show no sign of structural breach at their largest degrees of trend - at least not in nominal terms. Case closed:

The Grand Jury at Super-Cycle Degree Denied this Hearing:
The argument as to which wave structures prove to be correct is irrelevant. What is relevant is the fact that such possibilities exist. Given that guidelines to these distinct structures are identifiable, the means by which one respects their evolving message is of utmost relevance and practical utility.

Two Sides to Every Trade:
Elliott Waves are on neither side of any trade, tactical market orders are. As we attempted to convey in Strategic Command and Control, wave-counts play a minor role in executing trade and investment strategy. What govern successful strategies are respected disciplines together with tactical deployment of speculative capital that responds to real-time price action regardless of ancillary wave guidance. Wave counts serve only as a general guide in monitoring which outcome currently has the upper hand.

Wave Counts and Trading:
The take-away is this: Although exquisite and impressive in both hindsight and real-time, Elliott Wave analysis serves only in providing forward vision to several plausible paths the market will take in its dynamic evolution, especially at the largest degrees of trend. By effectively monitoring guidance systems of this profound nature, one can then begin to develop investment and speculative strategies to profit smartly from the vast array of endless possibilities the wave structures will inevitably adopt. Defined clearly, strategy-specific rules of engagement together with accurate wave guidance will soon have one trading like a Spartan Warrior.

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Joseph Russo
Chief Editor and Technical Analyst
Elliott Wave Technology

Joseph Russo, presently the chief editor and analyst for Elliott Wave Technology, has been studying Elliott Wave Theory, and the Technical Analysis of Financial Markets since 1991 and currently maintains active member status in the "Market Technicians Association." Joe continues to expand his body of knowledge through the MTA's accredited CMT program. Having passed the Level I examination in November of 2004, Joe is now preparing to begin study for his Level II exams. Upon successful completion of an exhaustive level III examination he will have earned the industries highly regarded designation of Chartered Market Technician.