Safehaven | Similarities with the 2002 Bear Low

April 05, 2009

Similarities with the 2002 Bear Low
by Francis Bussiere

Market keeps behaving like 2002 Venus retro low

The Market has behaved very much like the last Venus retro low of Oct 10, 02, and I am quite displeased for not paying closer attention to it, instead of expecting a pull back for the different Put/Call values than in 2002. It will now stay prominently in the update until it stops working, and the pull back should come this week with rebounds late in the week. Since we only made a marginal new high in 2002, it is also likely that we have already seen most of the gains for this rally.

Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Moon cycles are negative into mid April

Statistically the New Moon and the Moon in Leo are highs and we rallied into both of them. The Moon cycles invert at times but the last large turns have occurred near the Moon cycles and we should drop into the Full Moon if this behavior continues.

Courtesy of StockCharts.com

A crash alignment for the 2002 and 2008 lows

When looking at the lows from a longer term perspective, a good fit is found by aligning the crash lows of July 02 and October 08 with a 2/3 scale. From the crash low in July 02, the low was tested twice successfully 2.5 and 7.5 months later by establishing a 7.5 month base between 800 and 950. Since the October 08 crash lows, we failed to hold the lows twice 1.7 and 5.1 months later and stayed within a descending parallel channel which is the definition of a down trend. We also saw a lot more fear back in 2002, and the breakout was preceded by a Tick breakout one month before the price breakout, and we have not seen this yet. The next 1.7 month cycle low is due near the New Moon of April 24th which also happens to be a potential Cardinal Panic Moon and we should at least head lower in April.

Courtesy of StockCharts.com

A Venus retro alignment for the 2002 and 2009 lows

This rally has already moved up 27% and exceeded the 24% rebound from the 2002 low, and is behaving more like a bear market rally than a lasting low like in 2002. If we continue to follow this pattern, we should see little gains from here and start a decline into late April for the 1.7 month cycle low on the right, or into late May for the 2.5 month cycle low below, and it is likely to be deeper than it was in December 02 which came after a multi year low and had even stronger seasonality supporting the market than now.

Courtesy of StockCharts.com

Francis Bussiere
AstroCycle.net

Disclaimer: I am not a registered investment advisor and the information and opinions offered on this site are for educational use only. They should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities discussed on this site.