Safehaven | Last Week's Markets: Helping Assess What Might Be Ahead

June 27, 2005

Last Week's Markets: Helping Assess What Might Be Ahead
by Douglas R. Gillespie

Foreword

"Last Week" is an examination of the week that was in the financial markets, in an effort to help assess the prospects for the week(s) that will be.

Summary

The performance of the stock market last week conformed closely to some of the key views expressed in last's weekend's edition. In a word and for the overall period, the market was -- "lousy!"

The coming week contains a meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee, and it is no secret that micro manipulating the stock market is one of Alan Greenspan's true passions. So there's a great chance the FOMC will try to throw a flagging market a bone in the FOMC's post-meeting statement on Thursday. I wonder, though, if the situation Greenspan and his Fed colleagues have created couldn't become a Humpty Dumpty at some point? Where the cumulative effects of all the machinations of the past finally come home to roost and actually contribute to a blow-up in the stock market? In other words, an ironic display of the law of unintended consequences at its best.

That's a story for another day. In the meantime, it looks to me like the stock market has already rolled over or is in the immediate process of doing so, and doing so in a serious way. Therefore, while it is unlikely to be a straight-line move to the downside, particularly with a Fed meeting and quarter-end at hand, I suspect the current decline is far from over. Continue to Gillespie Research for the balance of the essay: http://www.gillespieresearch.com/cgi-bin/s/article/id=587

Douglas R. Gillespie, Sr.
Gillespie Research Associates
165 Sheridan Avenue
HO-HO-KUS, NJ 07423
201-447-5743

Doug Gillespie oversees his own financial-market and economic consulting firm, Gillespie Research Associates. For a complimentary sample of Dougs material, e-mail him at drgillespiesr@aol.com.