Safehaven | Why Gold? | Printer Friendly Version

November 19, 2006

Why Gold?
by Greg Silberman

Article originally submitted to subscribers on 12th November 2006...

So the Dems took the Senate and the House.

It's always a credit to the US that so much power can be transferred in such a peaceful manner.
Well done America!

But I'm asking myself, what's really changed?

I think its great that President Bush may be reigned in a bit. A counter balance is normally a healthy thing, preventing extremes.

But look here, the Dems might begin to administer the right medicine at the exactly the WRONG time.
Higher taxes, reducing deficits and a reduction in overseas military operations. All these measures serve to reduce America's ability to do what it does best - SPEND. And its America's spending that's keeping the Global economy afloat.

Ok, what else is news?

I see Washington State is experiencing its worst Floods in 10 Years.
I hear parts of New South Wales in Australia are going through their worst drought in 1,000 years. Yip, you read that right, one thousand years. How they figure that out I'll never know.

Anyhow, to the thinking individual it should be obvious that the Worlds weather has gone crazy! Global Warming it seems is no longer a worry for the future but upon us NOW.
On the back of weather related news I notice agriculture prices have now come alive. Corn, Wheat, Oats are all surging.

Chart 1 - Agriculture (top) leading commodities higher; Gold (bottom) will move higher on inflation concerns

Nothing increases Inflation Expectations quicker than rising Food prices. The Reserve Bank of Australia obviously realizes this and recently raised interest rates to keep expectations in 'check'.

It's actually laughable that Central Banks whose sole purpose is to create money (the very essence of the definition of inflation) market themselves as inflation-fighters-in-chief.

The fact is Central banks the world over are now being pressured to raise rates. This comes at a time when debt levels are so high that higher rates pose a SERIOUS RISK OF CAUSING A FINANCIAL CATASTROPHE.

I bet the thinking at the Fed is:
- Don't rock the Debt Laden (Housing) boat with anymore interest rates rises.
- Let inflation have its Day and hopefully moderate naturally due to brutal price competition out of China and India.
- Pray the Dollar devaluation continues in an orderly manner.

It's a very tricky balancing act and as long as the world faces these massive financial and natural imbalances the major investment themes within your portfolio should be Gold for Dollar devaluation and Uranium for Global Warming.

Oh well, enough doom and gloom for now. It's a glorious day on Bondi Beach in Sydney. Surfs up and it's No Worries Mate! Just keep an eye on that Dollar index. With the Chinese openly announcing a shift away from Dollar reserves, a move under 85.00 would be the first sign of trouble.

More commentary and stock picks follow for subscribers...

Greg Silberman CA(SA), CFA
www.goldandoilstocks.com

Profession: Research Analyst and Newsletter Editor
Company: Ritterband Investment Management LLC

Career Brief: Greg qualified as the youngest Chartered Accountant and Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) in South Africa in 1998 at 25 years old. After completing his traineeship with Grant Thornton he moved to London where he worked for JP Morgan Chase in their Fixed Income Swaps Division. Sick of the grey skies and cold weather Greg relocated to Atlanta, Georgia where he spent the next 4 years freelancing as a management consultant. His targeted clients were fast growing mid size US based companies and he worked across many industries including credit cards, health insurance and energy trading. Greg has recently returned from Sydney Australia where he spent the last 2½ years working in Equity Derivative Structuring for Perpetual investments a major Australian Asset Management Company.

Greg has a passion for the markets and has been writing Greg's market newsletter for 2-years. A newsletter focused on metal and energy stocks and recently non-resource small caps listed in the US and Internationally.

This article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct further research and consult your financial advisor before making any investment/trading decision. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that may result as a consequence of trading on the basis of this analysis.