Safehaven | British Pound (GPB/USD) Targeting a Significant Downtrend to 1.8600

March 05, 2007

British Pound (GPB/USD) Targeting a Significant Downtrend to 1.8600
by Nadeem Walayat

The US Dollar strengthened late last week, especially against much a weaker British Pound, which ended Friday on a weak 1.9430. The Pound earlier in the week again failed to get anywhere near breaching the previous high of 1.9890.

Technical Analysis

Price Pattern - The Pound broke below the Symmetrical triangle off of the 1.9890 high late Friday. This initially targets a move equivalent to the size of the pattern or 5 cents.
Support - Heavy support is at the 192.60 lows, should this break then the next significant support coincides with the lows of 1.8515 and 1.8600
Trendlines - The Pound managed to hold the uptrendline support on Friday at 194.30, virtually at the trendline level, should this trendline break then that would confirm the bearish pattern
% Levels - The 50% support level of the rally from 1.7250 lies at 1.8550, this conveniently coincides with major support levels along previous lows.
Elliott Waves - The Elliott wave count implies an immediate 5th wave peak, and thus implies a correction of the rally from 172.50, which confirms the trends analysis.
Time - The Pound is correcting an up move spanning some 10 months, therefore the Pound could correct / drift lower for as much as three months or into May 2007.

Conclusion - The GBP is targeting a significant downtrend to 1.8600 by early May 07. The key trigger levels for this trend are a break of 1.9400 and 1.9250. Once confirmed, the downtrend is expected to be a correction to the uptrend from 1.7250, and therefore does not imply an end of the bull market. Current Resistance lies at the previous high of 1.9661.

Nadeem Walayat
MarketOracle.co.uk

Disclaimer - This Analysis / Forecast / Trade Scenerio is provided for general information purposes only and not a solicitation or recommendation to enter into any market position, and you are reminded to seek independent professional advice before entering into any investments or trading positions. The Market Oracle is a FREE Financial Markets Forecasting & Analysis online publication. We aim to cut through the noise cluttering traditional sources of market analysis and get to the key points of where the markets are at and where they are expected to move to next!