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April 05, 2008

Crude and USD - Possible Triangles
by Dan Stinson

Elliott Wave on Crude and the USD

Short Term Forecast

The USD and Crude appear to be in triangle patterns, currently in wave (D). (The Euro also appears as a triangle in wave (D).)

The action has been very corrective for the USD and Crude indicating that a brief new high for Crude and a brief new low for the USD is expected. We can confirm that a triangle pattern is in play if we see a bounce off the trendlines at the wave (D) intercepts. We should then see a smaller move in wave (E) followed by a sharp thrust in wave (5) to complete the upside in Crude and the downside in the USD. The price action for wave (E) will likely fall short of the trendline, before wave (5) begins. Once wave (5) completes, we should have an intermediate high in place for Crude and an intermediate low in place for the USD, before larger corrective patterns.

There is a possibility that wave (5) is in play now and this would be confirmed with a break of the trendline at wave (D), before wave (E) has a chance to play out.

Crude

USD

We can monitor both of these charts to confirm (or negate) the triangle patterns. The price action should be contained within the trendlines to complete wave (E) before the breakouts in wave (5). Any breach of the trendlines (confirmed by a break of the red or green horizontal lines) before wave (E) completes, negates the triangle pattern. A breach could indicate a larger correction pattern or that wave (5) is already in play.

These charts are only a guide so that you can follow the action and watch for the expected action in the triangle. The action could play out exactly as illustrated or it may need minor adjustments as we follow it through.

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Happy Trading!!!

Dan Stinson
Elliott Wave Chart Site
ewavecharts.com

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